1.A.3.b.v Fugitive Emissions in RT

Last updated on 04 Dec 2014 08:38 (cf. Authors)

Short description

In category 1.A.3.b v - Road Transport: Gasoline evaporation fugitive emissions from evaporation of gasoline from road vehicles are reported.

NFR-Code Name of Category Method AD EF Key Source for (by1)
1.A.3.b v Gasoline evaporation T1 NS CS NMVOC (T)

1 T = key source by Trend / L = key source by Level

Method

Activity data

Specific data for gasoline evaporation from road vehicles are generated within TREMOD [2].
- The following table provides an overview of annual amounts of gasoline evaported from road vehicles in Germany.

Table 1: Annual amount of gasoline evaporated from road vehicles, in [kt]

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Passenger cars 10,923 10,477 10,157 10,365 9,672 9,638 9,590 9,488 9,567 9,691
Light-duty vehicles 169 177 180 169 136 138 140 142 141 145
Mopeds 113 90 66 54 75 79 76 73 77 77
Motorcycles 78 62 51 42 34 39 54 67 67 78
TOTAL 11,283 10,807 10,453 10,631 9,917 9,894 9,861 9,770 9,852 9,991
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Passenger cars 9,113 9,522 9,344 8,636 8,549 8,058 7,684 7,366 7,134 7,091
Light-duty vehicles 143 136 132 118 107 101 92 85 72 65
Mopeds 72 70 65 67 72 73 75 75 77 79
Motorcycles 93 101 124 117 125 134 137 81 89 98
TOTAL 9,421 9,829 9,665 8,938 8,853 8,366 7,989 7,606 7,372 7,333
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Passenger cars 6,972 7,165 6,592
Light-duty vehicles 60 57 53
Mopeds 76 79 79
Motorcycles 105 113 113
TOTAL 7,213 7,413 6,836

Emission factors

Tier3 emission factors representing the effect of mitigation technologies are derived from the TREMOD model from (ifeu, 2013) used troughout NFR sector 1.A.3. [1]

EF used for 2012 emission estimates

Table 2: EF(NMVOC) 2012, in [kg/t]

Passenger cars Light duty vehicles Mopeds Motorcycles
Mitigation without with without with without without with
Emission Factor 12.69 0.33 9.15 0.20 2.37 8.70 7.20

Trend discussion for Key Categories

NFR 1.A.3.b v - Gasoline evaporation is key source for emissions of

  • NMVOC regarding the emissions' declining trend.

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds - NMVOC

(fugitive emissions only; no NMVOC emissions from fuel combustion included)

Since its maximum level of over 11 kilotonnes in 1990, the amount of evaporated gasoline is decreasing - and so are the related NMVOC emissions. The amounts of evaporated gasoline are connected directly with those of gasoline consumed. Here, the decrease becomes sharper from 2000 onwards following a growing switch from gasoline to diesel oil especially in passenger cars. Here, the annual amounts of NMVOC emissions from evaporation not only depend directly on the amount of evaporated gasoline but also on the number of vehicles equipped with mitigation technologies. Thus, the decrease is sharpest straight after 1990 and since then slowing down.

Recalculations

Recalculations were carried out due to a routine revision of the TREMOD software.
Here, activity data was revised for all years from 2006 depending on the vehicle type.

Table 3: Revised annual amounts of evaporated gasoline 2006-2011, in [kt]

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1.A.3.b v - TOTAL
Submission 2014 11,283 9,894 9,421 9,829 9,665 8,938 8,853 8,366 7,989 7,606 7,372 7,333 7,213 7,413
Submission 2013 11,283 9,894 9,421 9,830 9,663 8,933 8,846 8,366 7,877 7,413 7,154 7,063 6,758 6,686
absolute change 0 0 0 -1 2 4 7 0 112 193 218 270 455 727
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 4% 7% 11%
from passenger cars
Submission 2014 10,923 9,638 9,113 9,522 9,344 8,636 8,549 8,058 7,684 7,366 7,134 7,091 6,972 7,165
Submission 2013 10,923 9,638 9,113 9,522 9,344 8,636 8,549 8,058 7,577 7,183 6,929 6,839 6,539 6,454
absolute change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 106 183 206 252 433 710
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 3% 4% 7% 11%
from light-duty vehicles
Submission 2014 169 138 143 136 132 118 107 101 92 85 72 65 60 57
Submission 2013 169 138 143 136 132 118 107 101 92 85 73 67 63 61
absolute change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -6%
from mopeds
Submission 2014 113 79 72 70 65 67 72 73 75 75 77 79 76 79
Submission 2013 113 79 72 70 65 67 72 73 75 75 77 79 76 76
absolute change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
from motorcycles
Submission 2014 78 39 93 101 124 117 125 134 137 81 89 98 105 113
Submission 2013 78 39 93 102 123 113 118 134 133 70 75 78 80 95
absolute change 0 0 0 -1 2 4 7 0 5 10 14 20 25 17
relative change 0% 0% 0% -1% 1% 4% 6% 0% 4% 14% 19% 25% 31% 18%

In addition, tier3 NMVOC emission factors were revised for all years from 2006 onwards, too.

Table 4: Revised tier3 emission factors 2006-2011, in [kg NMVOC/t evaporated gasoline]

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EF for conventional passenger cars
Submission 2014 13.80 14.37 13.44 13.42 13.93 13.75 13.60 13.37 13.45 13.20 13.00 12.74 12.36
Submission 2013 13.80 14.37 13.44 13.42 13.93 13.75 13.61 13.54 13.77 13.57 13.45 13.56 13.72
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.32 -0.36 -0.45 -0.82 -1.37
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -3% -3% -6% -10%
EF for passenger cars with mitigation technology
Submission 2014 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.31
Submission 2013 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.35
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -3% -3% -6% -10%
EF for conventional LDVs
Submission 2014 10.84 9.45 9.16 9.02 9.17 9.38 9.11 8.72 8.76 8.81 9.08 9.14 9.10
Submission 2013 10.84 9.45 9.16 9.02 9.17 9.38 9.11 8.76 8.70 8.63 8.77 8.76 8.70
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.06 0.18 0.31 0.37 0.40
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5%
EF for LDVs with mitigation technology
Submission 2014 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19
Submission 2013 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5%
EF for mopeds (conventional only)
Submission 2014 2.19 2.34 2.22 2.43 2.25 2.22 2.30 2.23 2.33 2.33 2.45 2.42 2.33
Submission 2013 2.19 2.34 2.22 2.43 2.25 2.14 2.09 1.98 1.95 1.88 1.81 1.82 1.81
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.21 0.25 0.38 0.45 0.64 0.61 0.52
relative change 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 13% 20% 24% 35% 33% 29%
EF for conventional motorcycles
Submission 2014 16.30 9.32 8.80 7.47 7.92 7.66 7.22 7.06 11.04 9.63 9.15 8.71 8.50
Submission 2013 16.30 9.32 8.72 7.57 8.23 8.12 7.22 7.31 12.60 11.41 11.43 11.41 9.94
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.08 -0.11 -0.31 -0.46 0.00 -0.25 -1.56 -1.78 -2.28 -2.70 -1.44
relative change 0% 0% 1% -1% -4% -6% 0% -3% -12% -16% -20% -24% -14%
EF for motorcycles with mitigation technology
Submission 2014 NO 8.21 7.89 6.85 7.16 6.93 6.54 6.39 9.73 8.43 7.88 7.41 7.15
Submission 2013 NO 8.21 7.81 6.94 7.45 7.34 6.54 6.62 11.12 9.99 9.84 9.70 8.34
absolute change 0.00 0.07 -0.10 -0.28 -0.42 0.00 -0.23 -1.39 -1.56 -1.96 -2.29 -1.19
relative change 0% 1% -1% -4% -6% 0% -3% -13% -16% -20% -24% -14%

As a result of the changes in activity data and emission factors, NMVOC emissions from gasoline evaporation have been re-estimated for the years 2006 to 2011.

Table 5: Re-estimated NMVOC emissions 2006-2011, in [kt]

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Submission 2014 104.24 51.64 19.19 16.08 13.13 10.65 9.11 7.74 6.66 5.98 4.98 4.77 4.56 4.56
Submission 2013 104.24 51.64 19.19 16.08 13.13 10.65 9.10 7.72 6.64 5.95 4.94 4.71 4.52 4.50
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.06
relative change 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.22% 0.33% 0.55% 0.80% 1.17% 1.01% 1.28%

Uncertainties

Uncertainty estimates for activity data of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: "Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland" by (ifeu & INFRAS 2009) [2]. - For detailled information, please refer to the project's final report here (German version only!)

Uncertainty estimates for emission factors for all 1.A.3.b sub-categories were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published.

Planned improvements

Besides the routine revision of the TREMOD model, the implemetation of emissions due to running losses is scheduled as a follow-up of the review process.

FAQs


Bibliography
1. ifeu, 2013: Knörr, W. et al., IFEU - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH: Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2030, sowie TREMOD 5.4, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Berlin.
2. ifeu & INFRAS, 2009: IFEU – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH und INFRAS Zürich: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich.
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