14. Adjustments and Emission Ceiling Exceedance

Last updated on 04 Dec 2014 08:38 (cf. Authors)

Emission limits for 2010 onwards and Germany's compliance

With the new emission data for 2012 available, the German national totals and the compliance situation have changed as reflected in the following table:

NOTE: The overview table below has been revised during the adjustment review 2014! (revised values: italic)

2009 2010 2011 2012
NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
National ceilings
Gothenburg 1,081 550 995 550 1,081 550 995 550 1,081 550 995 550 1,081 550 995 550
NEC 1,051 520 995 550 1,051 520 995 550 1,051 520 995 550 1,051 520 995 550
Inventory data
Inventory Total 1,611.99 549.76 921.51 575.90 1,637.12 575.18 1,034.21 550.30 1,594.45 567.16 990.86 561.88 1,569.74 562.13 963.32 547.19
- Forest Fires -0.11 -0.02 -0.29 -0.03 -0.08 -0.02 -0.20 -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 -0.08 -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.10 -0.01
- Aviation (Cruise) -104.06 -1.53 -3.77 -1.32 -102.57 -1.50 -3.83 -1.29 -97.69 -1.42 -3.64 -1.22 -106.39 -1.54 -4.04 -1.32
- Marine bunkers -202.47 -141.58 -5.85 -0.45 -206.40 -143.25 -5.96 -0.46 -203.10 -141.83 -5.87 -0.45 -189.93 -133.44 -5.49 -0.42
= National Total (for Reporting) 1,305.35 406.62 911.60 574.10 1,328.07 430.41 1,024.21 548.53 1,293.64 423.90 981.27 560.19 1,273.38 427.14 953.69 545.43
Exceedances of set emssion ceilings
against NEC +254.35 +24.10 +277.07 +29.21 +242.64 +10.19 +222.38
against Gothenburg +224.35 +24.10 +244.07 +29.21 +212.64 +10.19 +192.38
Adjustment proposals
= National Total (for Reporting) 1,305.35 406.62 911.60 574.10 1,328.07 430.41 1,024.21 548.53 1,293.64 423.90 981.27 560.19 1,273.38 427.14 953.69 545.43
- DE-A Road Transport -105.56 -101.30 -95.73 -91.69
- DE-B Manure Management -1.97 -1.93 -1.89 -1.88
- DE-C Agricultural Soils -101.41 -101.82 -110.29 -104.80
= National Total (for Compliance) 1,096.41 406.62 911.60 574.10 1,123.02 430.41 1,024.21 548.53 1,085.73 423.90 981.27 560.19 1,075.01 427.14 953.69 545.43
Remaining exceedances (after adjustment)
against NEC +45.41 +24.10 +72.02 +29.21 +34.73 +10.19 +24.01 -4,57
against Gothenburg +15.41 +24.10 +42.02 +29.21 +4.73 +10.19 -5.99 -4,57

The table above provides a breakdown of the emission data for the years 2009 to 2012 and the four pollutants relevant for Gothenburg and NEC compliance (NOx, SO2, NMVOC, and NH3). Starting from the Germany's emission ceilings required by the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC directive respectively, the Inventory Total values are provided. These include emission amounts that are not considered for compliance (the so-called "Memo Items", e.g. bunkers, aviation etc.). These amounts are subtracted, resulting in the National Total officially used for reporting. These National Totals are then compared to the NEC and Gothenburg ceilings and exceedance amounts are provided wherever an exceedance occurs.

In a next step, the Adjustments as defined by the CLRTAP Guidelines and proposed by Germany are applied to the National Totals. (All details on the proposed adjustments are given below.) Finally, new national totals for compliance checking and the remaining exceedance against both the NEC directive and the Gothenburg protocol are calculated for each pollutant.

As a general result it can be derived that Germany is struggling to comply with its emission reduction commitments, at least for the pollutants NOx, NMVOC, and NH3. Nevertheless, with adjustments taken into account, Germany is optimistic about being in compliance from 2013 onwards. The details per pollutant are discussed in the next section.

Current situation per pollutant

With respect to NOx emissions, both the NEC and Gothenburg commitments have not been reached yet. However, compliance should be established from 2013 onwards, depending on the status of the proposed adjustments. If these are accepted, Germany's total NOx emission will be below the ceilings for both regulations next year.

Germany's SO2 emissions have been on a steep and steady decline since the 1980's. Today's numbers are significantly lower than expected when the emission ceilings were established, thus Germany does not have any problems meeting its emission ceiling for sulphur.

Compliance with the ceiling for NMVOC emissions at 995 kt has been achieved. The national total emission of NMVOCs show a steady downward trend. The only critical year is 2010 when recovery from the "crisis year" 2009 brought the emissions above the ceiling momentarily. For both 2009 and 2011, emission levels are much lower and the three year average puts Germany into compliance easily.

For NH3, the situation is rather complex. The current numbers for ammonia emissions are right below the national emission ceiling. The national total fluctuates greatly with agricultural activity, namely the sale and application of mineral fertilizers. These activities depend on a variety of external parameters, such as prices and economic growth, and to not show a clear trend. In 2011, NH3 emission have seen a spike and exceeded the ceiling set by the NEC directive and the Gothenburg protocol.

Adjustments in detail

Please refer to the following sub-sections for details on the emission adjustments proposed by Germany:

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