Adjustment DE-A - NOx from 1.A.3.b Road transport

Last updated on 04 Dec 2014 08:38 (cf. Authors)

During the adjustment review 2014, additional data and information has been implemented as sections STEP 5 and 5.1 of this report!
In addition, new results have been included in the RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS section at the end of this adjustment report.
Any new or revised content has been tagged as followes:
NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA > New content… < NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA)

PREFACE

When deriving proposals for national emission ceilings for negotiations of the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol, sector-specific emission estimates for the year 2010 were calculated at IIASA using a set of scenarios which assumed various technological abatement measures, policy incentives, and legislation available / in place or planned at that time. As a result, the 2010 emission by road transport in Germany was estimated at NOx (IIASA 1999) [4]. The over-all 2010 national emission ceiling (NEC) for NOx was set to 1,081 kt. When negotiating the EU NEC Directive two years later, Germany agreed to reduce its NOx emissions further, resulting in a NEC of 1,051 kt.

In its 2013 NEC emissions reporting, Germany provided a national total for NOx emissions of 1,325 kt for 2010. However, this total includes emissions from agricultural soils and other source categories not accounted for when setting the NEC. In addition, some assumptions made in 1999, including on emission factors from road traffic, turned out to be wrong in reality. Like in many other European countries, non-compliance with the 2010 NEC as set in 1999 was partly not caused by failed national mitigation policies, but by changes beyond the control of, and unforeseen by, the individual Party or Member State.

In order to differentiate such changes from policy failures in the responsibility of the individual Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol, a procedure (Inventory Adjustment) allowing the adjustment of emissions resulting from new emission categories, changes in estimation methodologies, emission factors etc. provided within the EMEP/EEA Guidebook, or other effects beyond national control with respect to complying to emission reduction obligations (EB 2012a, 2012c) [1], [3] was agreed. This procedure is applicable also for existing NECs (EB 2012b) [2].
With respect to road transport, such an unforeseeable effect was the partial failure of several so-called “Euro norms” set on the EU level to reduce emissions from road vehicles.
In this report, Germany presents an estimate of the NOx emissions resulting from the partial failure of the mitigation policy reflected by the Euro norms, and lays out the calculations leading to these estimates.

ADJUSTMENT PROPOSAL

INITIAL ASSUMPTION

In order to estimate the effect of NOx emissions resulting from the failure of the so-called Euro norms, it is vital to define a range of 2010 emission levels within which the final adjustment shall take place.
This range is determined by the sector-specific emission estimated in 1999 and the sector-specific emissions provided within the 2013 reporting. Here, the latter value can be taken directly from the annual NEC and CLRTAP submission, providing an aggregate amount of NOx emissions from road transport of 507.8 kt for 2010. The former value has already been referenced above and amounts to 417.8 kt.

2010 sectoral NOx emissions (including abatement) from German road transport (IIASA 1999) [4] 417.8 kt
2010 sector-total for NOx from German road transport from (UBA 2013a) [8] 507.8 kt
absolute difference 90 kt

However, this difference is not the emission to which inventory adjustment is applicable. Instead, only the difference which can be attributed to the use of improper emission factors deduced from the Euro-norms has to be determined.

Within this report, Germany re-estimates the NOx emission within the TREMOD 3.1 model (ifeu, 2002) [5]. To isolate the requested information, several estimations were carried out within this model combining original 1999 RAINS activity data (IIASA 1999) [4] with emission factors from both TREMOD 3.1 and the currently used TREMOD 5.4 (ifeu, 2013) [6].

STEP 1 – REPRODUCING THE RAINS SECTORIAL EMISSION ESTIMATE

It is the aim of this initial step to reproduce the sectorial emission of 417.8 kt which were taken into account in 1999 as the this sector's specific share of the over-all emission ceiling set for 2010. Therefore it was tried to reproduce this sectorial value estimated within RAINS in 1999 within TREMOD 3.1, the oldest TREMOD version still available.

This comparative calculation resulted in 402.5 kt of NOx for 2010. Compared to the 417.8 kt provided in (IIASA 1999) [4], a difference of 15.3 kt NOx occurs, that can be ascribed to the necessary aggregation and different methodologies used in RAINS and TREMOD. For the purpose of the calculations described in this report, the match is certainly “good enough”, since only relative shares rather than the actual values will be used below.

RESULT: effect (c) = 15.3 kt NOx (see STEP 4 below)

STEP 2 – ISOLATING THE CONTRIBUTION OF CHANGED EMISSION FACTORS

For this step, activity data from the oldest TREMOD Version still available, TREMOD 3.1 ware combined with current emission factors taken from TREMOD 5.4.

For this, data had to be prepared as follows:

  • (i) Estimation of average emission factors (EF) per vehicle category, type of impulsion (diesel, gasoline) and emission concept (conventional or Euro-norm) from both TREMOD versions for 2010
  • (ii) Deduction of the change in emissions compared to a conventional vehicle for Euro-1 to -5 of for every vehicle category in TREMOD 5.4: As a result, correction factors (CF5.4) are deduced for all Euro-norms (1 to 5) compared to a conventional vehicle.
  • (iii) Transfer of these CF5.4 to TREMOD 3.1, resulting in corrected emission factors (EF3.1, corr.) within this model
  • (iv) Re-estimation of 2010 NOx emissions in TREMOD 3.1 using these corrected emission factors.

The following table shows the approach for three selected vehicle categories ((a) Diesel Passenger (Cars D-PC), (b) Gasoline Passenger Cars (G-PC) and (c) Articulated Trucks (AT, diesel only)).

Table 1: Re-estimation of 2010 NOx emissions in scenario TREMOD 3.1, using current knowledge on the development of EF(NOx) per Euro-level – for diesel and gasoline PC and articulated trucks

EF3.1 EF5.4 CF3.1 CF5.4 EF3.1, corr. Mileage3.1 EMold EMnew
[g/km] [1] [g/km] [109 km] [kt]
Diesel Passenger Cars (D-PC)
Conventional 0.67 0.81 1.00 1.00 0.67 0.0 0.0 0.0
Euro-1 0.67 0.75 1.00 0.92 0.62 2.9 1.9 1.8
Euro-2 0.49 0.79 0.74 0.98 0.66 9.3 4.6 6.1
Euro-3 0.36 0.83 0.54 1.03 0.68 48.8 17.7 33.4
Euro-4 0.24 0.53 0.37 0.66 0.44 123.7 30.2 54.4
Euro-5 0.24 0.53 0.37 0.65 0.43 30.7 7.5 13.3
D-PC TOTAL 215.3 61.9 109.0
Gasoline Passenger Cars (G-PC)
conventional 1.33 1.41 1.00 1.00 1.33 0.2 0.3 0.3
pre Euro-1 0.68 0.95 0.51 0.67 0.90 1.0 0.7 0.9
Euro-1 0.66 0.95 0.50 0.67 0.90 9.5 6.3 8.5
Euro-2 0.38 0.47 0.28 0.33 0.44 17.8 6.7 7.9
Euro-3 0.19 0.09 0.14 0.06 0.08 49.3 9.4 4.2
Euro-4 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.09 303.6 29.6 27.8
G-PC TOTAL 381.5 53.0 49.6
Articulated Truck (AT)
conventional 12.48 11.38 1.00 1.00 12.48 0.1 0.8 0.8
Euro-I 9.16 8.11 0.73 0.71 8.89 0.1 0.8 0.8
Euro-II 8.27 8.94 0.66 0.79 9.81 1.6 13.3 15.8
Euro-III 5.61 6.70 0.45 0.59 7.35 7.4 41.6 54.5
Euro-IV 4.29 3.59 0.34 0.32 3.94 4.8 20.8 19.1
Euro-V 2.15 2.30 0.17 0.20 2.52 9.4 20.1 23.6
AT TOTAL 23.4 97.5 114.6

Source:Estimations carried out at ifeu Institute, Heidelberg, by Wolfram Knörr (ifeu 2014) [7]

EF = emission factor
CF = correction factor
3.1 = data from TREMOD 3.1 (ifeu 2002) [5]
5.4 = data from TREMOD 5.4 (ifeu 2013) [6]
corr. = corrected using CF

Combining the vehicle categories as provided in RAINS (light gasoline vehicles (LGV), light diesel vehicles (LDV), and heavy diesel vehicles (HDV)) results in the following emission estimates for original and current EF:

Table 2: Re-estimation of 2010 NOx emissions using RAINS vehicle categories – based on mileage

EMold EMnew Difference
[kt] [%]
LGV 58.9 55.4 -3.5 -6
LDV 76.9 133.0 +56.1 +73
HDV 248.4 303.9 +55.5 +22
TOTAL 384.2 492.3 +108.1 +28

Source: Estimations carried out at ifeu [7]

Here, the mileage-based emission estimation using current EF results in 492.3 kt NOx emissions for 2010.

As the emission estimates for emissions reporting are not based on mileage (as in TREMOD) but on fuel consumption data from the National Energy Balance, a correction of the mileage-based EF to energy-based EF is necessary (UBA 2013b) [9]. Using these energy-based EFs results in the following estimates:

Table 3: Re-estimation of 2010 NOx emissions using RAINS vehicle categories – based on fuel consumption

EMold EMnew Difference
[kt] [%]
LGV 61.2 57.4 -3.8 -6
LDV 89.5 155.3 +65.8 +73
HDV 251.8 307.9 +56.1 +22
TOTAL 402.5 520.7 +118.2 +29

Source: Estimations carried out at ifeu [7]

Re-estimating NOx emissions from road transport in TREMOD 3.1 using current energy-based EF results in 520.7 kt of NOx. Compared to the 417.8 kt from [IIASA 1999] this means an additional amount of 118.2 kt NOx.

RESULT: effect (a) = 118.2 kt NOx (see STEP 4 below)

Since the amount of 2010 NOx emissions calculated here is higher than the amount provided in the 2013 NEC submission (507.8 kt), there have to be other, even antagonistic, effects that lead to a stronger decrease of emissions reported within the inventory (see STEP 3).

507.8 kt NOx, 2013 Submission - 402.5 kt NOx = 105.3 kt NOx = 118.2 kt NOx - X kt NOx, additional effects

STEP 3 – EXCLUSION OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF CHANGED ACTIVITY DATA (MILEAGE)

Within this step, original RAINS activity data was combined with current emission factors and mileage data from TREMOD 5.4.

Table 4: Comparison of TREMOD 3.1 and TREMOD 5.4 mileage estimates for 2010, in [109 km]

Mileage as estimated in Relative difference
TREMOD 3.1 TREMOD 5.4
Light gasoline vehicles 405.3 361.6 -11%
Light diesel vehicles 247.8 278.3 +12%
Heavy diesel vehicles 69.3 60.0 -13%
2010 mileage TOTAL 722.4 700.0 -3%

Source: Estimations carried out at ifeu [7]

In detail, mileage for gasoline cars and HDV was 11 and 13 per cent lower than assumed whereas mileage of light diesel cars was 12 per cent higher (see Table 4). Driven mostly by the LGV, the over-all mileage 2010 is about 3 per cent lower than originally projected.

As shown above, the actual 2010 over-all mileage (700 bn. km) is slightly smaller than expected in 1999 (722 bn. km), resulting in emissions of 492.4 kt NOx. Compared to the emissions estimated using current EF only (STEP 2: 520.7 kt) this leads to a reduction of 28.3 kt.

Table 5: Comparison of NOx emission estimates for 2010, in [kt]

NOx emissions as estimated in TREMOD 3.1 using…
…original EF …current EF …current EF+ mileage
Light gasoline vehicles 61.2 57.4 51.2
Light diesel vehicles 89.5 155.3 174.4
Heavy diesel vehicles 251.8 307.9 266.7
TOTAL RT emissions 402.5 520.7 492.4

Source: Estimations carried out at ifeu [7]

The actual development of over-all mileage and, hence, fuel consumption led to lower NOx emissions (minus 28.3 kt) than originally assumed. Therefore, the adjustable amount needs to be relatively increased to compensate this antagonistic mileage-effect (see STEP 4).

RESULT: effect (b) = -28.3 kt NOx (see STEP 4 below)

STEP 4 – DEDUCING THE ADJUSTABLE AMOUNT OF NOx EMISSIONS

As shown above, possible lower borders for defining a possible range of adjustment could be set at 402.5 kt (as deduced in STEP 1) or 417.8 kt NOx (IIASA 1999)

Possible upper borders could be set at 508 kt (inventory 2013) or 520.7 kt (as deduced in STEP 2).

Resulting from these upper and lower borders, the following possible ranges of adjustment can be defined:

Table 6: Overview of deduced lower and upper emission borders and resulting ranges

lower border upper border resulting range
[kt NOx]
(i) 402.5 520.7 R1 = 118.2
(ii) 402.5 507.8 R2 = 105.5
(iii) 417.8 520.7 R3 = 102.9
(iv) 417.8 507.8 R4 = 90.2

Following the Guidelines on Adjustments [10], Germany decided to use the 1999 IIASA value (417.8 kt) as the lower border of the possible adjustment-range. This decision results in a conservative, reduced adjustment range. For the upper border we propose 507.8 kt (2013 NEC inventory) of 2010 NOx emissions, which again reduces the possible adjustment range.

Table 7: Crosstabulation - Comparison of NOx emissions resulting from the different combinations of AD and EF described above

AD from RAINS TREMOD 3.1 TREMOD 5.4
EF from
RAINS 417.8 kt
TREMOD 3.1 402.5 kt
TREMOD 5.4 520.7 kt 507.8 kt

These set borders give a difference of 90.2 kt NOx (R4) resulting from the combined impact of three (partly antagonistic) effects. In order to deduce the final adjustable amount, any additional effects have to eliminated!:

  • (a) Updated emission factors as a result of the failed EURO-Norms
(1)
\begin{gather} = +118.2 kt \end{gather}
  • (b) Lower over-all activity data 2010 than anticipated in 1999 (see Step 3 above)
(2)
\begin{gather} = -28.3 kt \end{gather}

and

  • (c) Other effects such as methodological differences between RAINS (1999), TREMOD 3.1 and 5.4 (Differences in vehicle layers, fleet composition etc.) and effects resulting from the necessary aggregation of detailed TREMOD to allow the combination with the more aggregate 1999 RAINS AD
(3)
\begin{gather} = 417.8 kt - 402.5 kt = +15.3 kt \end{gather}

No further information e.g. on emission factors is available regarding the 417.8 kt of NOx determined within RAINS in 1999, and reproducing 1999 estimates as described in this report was carried out in TREMOD 3.1.

Therefore, defining the contribution of Euro-norm failure to range R4 has to start with analysing Range R2 defined by a lower border as estimated in STEP 1 (TREMOD 3.1 + RAINS AD: 402.5 kt) and the 2013 NEC submission (TREMOD 5.4: 507.8 kt). This range (R2 = 105.5 kt) includes all three effects listed above.

As shown in the Steps 1 to 4, the effects amounting to 105.5 kt (R2) can be accounted for as follows:

(4)
\begin{gather} 118.2 kt - 28.3 kt + 15.3 kt = 105.5 kt \end{gather}

To isolate the contribution of the Euro-norms failure (share A) in the possible adjustment range, its relative contribution has to be applied to the 90.2 kt defined above.
In order to do this, the known shares (B), and (C) have to be multiplied by fcorr. = 90.2 kt/105.5 kt ≈ 0.855:

(5)
\begin{gather} R_\text{4} = (A) + (B) \cdot f_\text{corr.} + C \cdot f_\text{corr.} \end{gather}

Inserting the amounts deduced in STEPs 1 and 3 above gives:

(6)
\begin{gather} 90.2 kt = (A) + (-28.3 kt) \cdot f_\text{corr.} + (15.3 kt) \cdot f_\text{corr.} \end{gather} \begin{gather} 90.2 kt = (A) + (-24.20 kt) + 13.08 kt \end{gather} \begin{gather} 77.1 kt = (A) + (-24.20 kt) = (A) - 24.20 kt \end{gather} \begin{gather} 101.3 kt = (A) \end{gather}

NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA >

These 101.3 kt of addtional NOx represents the amount that results entirely from changes in emission factors due to Euro-norm failure. Compared to Range 4 (R4) defined above with 90.2 kt NOx, the contributions of both metodological differences between RAINS (1999), TREMOD 3.1 and TREMOD 5.4, and of the lower over-all activity data 2010 (than anticipated in 1999) are eliminated.

Firstly, the named methodological differences (see STEP 1) result in slightly higher 2010 emissions than the pure application of current EF to the old model would suggest. Therefore, to compensate this effect and to define the pure contribution of emission factors, the predefined adjustment range R4 had to be relatively decreased.

Secondly, the named lower over-all activity data 2010 (than anticipated in 1999; see STEP 3) results in slightly lower 2010 emissions than the pure application of current EF to the old model would suggest. Therefore, to compensate this effect and to define the pure contribution of emission factors, the predefined adjustment range R4 had to be relatively increased.

Taking into account all contributing effects, the final range of adjustment R4, clean is 101.3 kt of additional NOx resulting from Euro-norm failure only.

STEP 5 - DEDUCING THE ADJUSTMENT PROPOSALS FOR 2011 & 2012

As the original GAINS data is only representative for estimating the adjustment proposal for 2010, no such approach can be applied properly for 2011 and 2012. Therefore, adjustment proposals for (2009,) 2011 and 2012 were derived from the ratio of the official values reported for these years and 2010 with the 2014 CLRTAP submission.

Table 8: Deduction of ratios (based on data from 2014 CLRTAP submission!)

2009 2010 2011 2012
1.A.3.b Total 529.62 508.23 480.27 460.01
ratios against 2010 +4.21 % - -5.50 % -9.49 %

The adjustment proposals were then calculated by applying these ratios to the 2010 adjustment estimate (101.30 kt NOx).

Table 9: Deduction of the adjustment proposals (based on data from 2014 CLRTAP submission!)

2009 2010 2011 2012
adjustment proposal estimate - 101.30 kt - -
derived adjustment proposal -105.56 kt - -95.73 kt -91.69 kt
resulting adjusted emissions 412.50 kt 406.93 kt 384.54 kt 364.28 kt

STEP 5.1 - DEDUCING THE ADJUSTMENT PROPOSALS FOR PROJECTION YEARS 2015, 2020, AND 2030

The adjustment proposals for the three projection years were derived as described for 2011 and 2012.

Table 10: Deduction of ratios (based on data from 2014 CLRTAP submission!)

2010 2015 2020 2030
1.A.3.b Total 508.23 kt 408.56 kt 262.28 kt 169.82 kt
ratios against 2010 - -19.61 % -48.39 % -66.59 %

The adjustment proposals were then calculated by applying these ratios to the 2010 adjustment estimate (101.30 kt NOx).

Table 11: Deduction of the adjustment proposals (based on data from 2014 CLRTAP submission!)

2010 2015 2020 2030
adjustment proposal estimate 101.30 kt - - -
derived adjustment proposal - -81.43 kt -52.28 kt -33.85 kt
resulting adjusted emissions 406.93 kt 312.83 kt 166.56 kt 74.09 kt

< NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA

RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS

NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA >

The amount of additional NOx emitted in 2010 due to the failure of Euro-norms (= adjustment proposal 2010) is 101.3 kt.

For the years 2011 and 2012, Germany furthermore derives adjustment proposals of 95.73 and 91.69 kt respectively.

In addition, for the projection years 2015, 2020 and 2030, possible adjustments would amount to 81.43, 52.28 and 33.85 kt.

< NEW OR REVISED TEXT & DATA


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